Filtering by Tag: Win Projections

How Good Can the Nationals Be

The Nationals roster isn't complete. There are two bullpen spots to be wonin Spring Training or filled in a trade of Michael Morse, but those two spots will have little impact on the Nats prospects for 2013. In my curiosity I decided to make a spreadsheet of the average fWAR for the Washington Nationals roster. I left a couple things out. I didn't calculate pitcher's batting, but as the Nats pitchers were fairly decent in 2012 that could be a marginal positive, but even if they aren't that good it isn't something that matters a great deal. I also got a bit lazy with the bullpen and sense the Nats have virtually the same bullpen as 2012 and that bullpen was middle of the pack in fWAR I figured the 2013 Nats bullpen will be much the same. The bench I added up, hoped for fewer injuries, and subtracted a win or two off. The grand total of all this is that the Nats will be a 52.8 fWAR team.

In 2012 they were a 50.1 fWAR team. With a team of replacements being figured to win around 45-50 games the Nats win total of 98 fits comfortably in there. Now in 2012 the Nats had a number of players below their career average fWAR. Jayson Werth has averaged 3.3 fWAR for his career and in 2012 he was worth 1.0 fWAR. Ryan Zimmerman was closer to his career average fWAR than expected, but still lower at 4.5 compared to 4.8 average for his career. Either way the Nats two highest paid players had below average seasons. The biggest improvement in fWAR for the Nats though comes from the addition of Dan Haren. His career average fWAR of 4.7 would be a great boost to the Nationals, but as he wasn't even worth 2.0 fWAR in 2012 that can't be expected, but then that is somewhat balanced out by Ross Detwiler being rewarded with 1.8 fWAR when he could be closer to 3.0 in 2013. All this means is you take this average fWAR add it to 45 and 50 and get a good range total for the number of games the Nats should win in 2013.

Read More

Riding that Train

Think back to a time before the Washington Nationals had taken the field to play meaningful baseball. Perhaps in Spring Training or maybe even before that, but think back to what expectations you had for the 2012 season. If you were like me you had the Nats winning somewhere around 86 games. In order for the Nationals to do that now they would have to go 17-33. That now looks highly unlikely as the Nationals haven't just been good, but they have been the best team in baseball and have played .616 baseball through 112 games. 

With just 50 games remaining in the season the big question is now where will the Nationals finish, and could they do something historic. First let's break down some milestones. The Nationals have already passed the win totals for 2008, 2009, and matched 2009 with their 69th win last night. They are now 11 wins away from matching last season's total and 13 away from the first winning record since moving to DC. All of those look like near certainties and it would take an epic collapse for the Nats not to reach them.

Read More

© 2016 Citizens of Natstown