The Nationals roster isn't complete. There are two bullpen spots to be wonin Spring Training or filled in a trade of Michael Morse, but those two spots will have little impact on the Nats prospects for 2013. In my curiosity I decided to make a spreadsheet of the average fWAR for the Washington Nationals roster. I left a couple things out. I didn't calculate pitcher's batting, but as the Nats pitchers were fairly decent in 2012 that could be a marginal positive, but even if they aren't that good it isn't something that matters a great deal. I also got a bit lazy with the bullpen and sense the Nats have virtually the same bullpen as 2012 and that bullpen was middle of the pack in fWAR I figured the 2013 Nats bullpen will be much the same. The bench I added up, hoped for fewer injuries, and subtracted a win or two off. The grand total of all this is that the Nats will be a 52.8 fWAR team.
In 2012 they were a 50.1 fWAR team. With a team of replacements being figured to win around 45-50 games the Nats win total of 98 fits comfortably in there. Now in 2012 the Nats had a number of players below their career average fWAR. Jayson Werth has averaged 3.3 fWAR for his career and in 2012 he was worth 1.0 fWAR. Ryan Zimmerman was closer to his career average fWAR than expected, but still lower at 4.5 compared to 4.8 average for his career. Either way the Nats two highest paid players had below average seasons. The biggest improvement in fWAR for the Nats though comes from the addition of Dan Haren. His career average fWAR of 4.7 would be a great boost to the Nationals, but as he wasn't even worth 2.0 fWAR in 2012 that can't be expected, but then that is somewhat balanced out by Ross Detwiler being rewarded with 1.8 fWAR when he could be closer to 3.0 in 2013. All this means is you take this average fWAR add it to 45 and 50 and get a good range total for the number of games the Nats should win in 2013.Read More