I like the Denard Span trade for many reasons. The Nationals have been looking for a center fielder since their inception and got one at the relatively low price of a minor league pitcher in Alex Meyer who has a ton of ML starting potential as well as bust/bullpen potential. I won't go further into the trade from a ML level since my colleague David Huzzard already went over that, but there are even more ripple effects caused by the trade when you look at it from a minor league and draft perspective.
Mike Rizzo has had his Adrian Veidt moment. After years and years of searching for a centerfielder that can lead-off the Nationals have found one in Denard Span. Consider for a moment that in 2010 the Nats team OBP from the lead-off position was .300 flat then dipped below .300 in 2011 rising to a still terrible .325 in 2012 while Denard Span for his career has a .357 OBP. If the Nationals had weaknesses in 2012 it was at the lead-off position and with outfield defense where Michael Morse is a -20.4 UZR/150 left fielder. Bryce Harper will improve on that and Denard Span combined with Harper and Werth will make the Nationals outfield a defensive sight to behold.
Since I am a little late to the Denard Span party here are a few links from around the web that wrap up the trade nicely from multiple perspectives.
The first major signing of the off-season has happened and it is BJ Upton going to the Atlanta Braves. Upton was never a good fit for the Nationals. As a batter he had too many of the same qualities as Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. The Nats have enough low OBP/high SLG bats to go around and if they fail to sign an outfielder they will have another in Tyler Moore in left field, and it is likely that Moore could be as good as Upton offensively. There is also the fact that while Upton is a good defender, Bryce Harper was a great defender in 2012.
The Nats outfield defense needs help, and while BJ Upton would have offered an upgrade the redundancy of his bat and his blocking of Brian Goodwin made him the worst fit of the free agent outfielders. Where it does effect the Nationals is what it means for the Braves. In 2012 Michael Bourn had his best season by fWAR amassing a total of 6.4 while Upton had a sub par season with 3.3 fWAR. Over the course of their careers both Upton and Bourn are around 4.0 WAR players.
A couple days ago Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post laid out his plan for the Nationals and it involved mostly doing nothing. Since then it has spawned a bit of a debate. Adam Kilgore responded about the other side of standing pat and the risks involved in taking that approach as opposed to bringing back LaRoche and handing out a contract to Sanchez or Lohse.
My take on the issue is that the Nationals are in an interesting situation, but it is not a situation uncommon to major league baseball franchises. Very rarely does it line-up that a team has a player leave and a prospect ready immediately. Drafting for baseball is more of a best player available game than any other sport because of the time involved in developing prospects, and while teams might lean towards a position they have coming open in the future they can't fully plan for it.
The off-season can be a cold dark time with slow trickles of news as we inch closer and closer to pitchers and catchers reporting. With Thanksgiving having finished and the Winter Meetings approaching this is the biggest lull the off-season will feature. So it was last week I didn't write a single baseball blog post. It is tough to write when there is nothing to write about. I am a relatively un-creative writer and have been dealing with some modicum of writer's block since July.
If I were to describe my writing style it would be blogging still-lifes. I merely describe what is put in front of me and what I choose to put in front of myself is baseball. Without anything happening and therefore nothing to look at and examine I have nothing to write about. So there I was on Facebook looking at comments to a MASN post asking Nats fans if LaRoche should be back. It was a near universal yes with many going as far as calling him a key cog.
There are a number of ways to describe the success of the 2012 Nationals season in numerical form.
Wins? Sure, best record in the game.
Team ERA? Cool, not bad.
Runs Created? Delightful.
Number of wins, correlated with the number of times Tom Gorzelanny takes off his cap, and rubs his head with the bill of it before he puts it back on in between pitches? Not that I’ve measured this*, but let’s just say keep scratchin’ that itch, Gorzo.
Needless to say, there are many variables, and many combinations thereof to show the Nats had a tip top season in 2012. However, the season ended too soon for a dominant squad, and most of the winter for the front office will be spent picking apart every game, every situation, every pitch, in order to find the weak link in the winning chain, with the hopes that shoring up the weakness(es) will bring home a World Series title next year.
Yes, I know I'm the head of minor league coverage at Citizens of Natstown and no, this is not a minor league subject. It is a subject that I've struggled with during the offseason so far, though, so I figured to write what was on my mind (and because it takes forever to write 549 player profiles for this year's minor league free agents as I plan on doing).
Michael Bourn is a very good baseball player, and is both better and younger than Shane Victorino. I will not argue with that at all. I do think that the situation isn't quite that simplistic, however, and busted out my Ted Mosby yellow legal pad to make a pros and cons list to make my decision.
The baseball offseason is a trying time for fans, and one that is highlighted by the comings and goings of players. While some trades make headlines, more than likely, most of the ink we will read during the winter months involves free agents, and their possible destinations. It all ultimately devolves into a glorified game of Eff-Marry-Kill when it comes to the discourse surrounding possible free agent signings, and the Nationals are no different than the other 29 franchises in this respect, as they have more than their share of possible moves to make in preparation for the 2013 season.
While the vast majority of possible moves that the Nats might make this winter will be determined upon the final destination of Gold Glove/Silver Slugger winner Adam LaRoche, one stands alone as unique, due to it being unencumbered by the complexity of a possible ALR re-signing.
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Jimmy Rollins is full of sound and fury telling tales like an idiot and running his mouth faster than he has ever run out a ground ball, but there is wisdom in what he says. His conclusion is flawed that because the Phillies suffered through multiple injuries to position players they will automatically win the division in 2013. They have suffered through those same injuries before. The last time Chase Utley played over 150 games was 2009 which also happens to be the last time the Phillies made it to the World Series. Ryan Howard has been more durable for his career and 2012 was the first time since becoming a full time player that he failed to play more than 140 games.
When talking about the Philadelphia Phillies it is important to realize that their strength in 2010 and 2011 was still their strength in 2012. The Phillies were fifth in MLB in starting pitching fWAR with 16.6 only a win and a half less than the NL leading Washington Nationals at 18.1. The Phillies had a very good rotation and that rotation is returning for the 2013 season. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Vance Worley form the cornerstone of a rotation that is four deep and can go toe to toe with any pitching staff in baseball. No team with a top four like that can be counted out.
Since the Nats moved to DC in 2005 the Marlins have been a thorn in their side. The Nationals .392 winning percentage against the Marlins is the worst of any team in the division and the third worst of any NL team. The Phillies happen to be next on the list at .397, but that is understandable. While the Phillies were busy winning division titles the Nats were busy being the worst team in baseball. The best team in baseball should own the worst team, but the Marlins were never all that good. More often than not as the Nationals were finishing fifth the Marlins were finishing fourth. This is just a tale of one team having another's number for no reason what-so-ever.
The Marlins yesterday made a decision. They reached the conclusion that the big free agent signings from a year before hadn't helped them draw like they expected and they needed to go back to their old model of doing business. The Marlins are in a situation where building through the farm system is better for them than trying to win now year after year and ending up with win totals in the 70's due to the lack of young talent on the roster.
It is simple to breakdown why Bryce Harper won the NL ROY award. He had the best season of any NL rookie. His 4.9 WAR was marginally higher than the 4.8 accumulated by pitcher Wade Miley, but in the end Harper was the everyday player and had a chance to make an impact on a baseball game everyday. That doesn't even factor age into the equation. The feats Harper accomplished at 19 are ones not likely to see duplicated in a generation.
Harper hit more homers than any 19 year old save Tony Conigliaro who was 19 in 1964. He had a higher SLG than any 19 year old save Mel Ott and Tony Conigliaro, and Ott was 19 in 1928. Bryce Harper finished with more total bases than anyone, more runs than anyone but George Lewis (1890) and Buddy Lewis (1936), and Harper finished with more stolen bases than anyone but George Davis and Ty Cobb (1906). Harper is tops in so many different categories it only helps to illustrate how versatile a player he is.
The guys are back in action to talk recently announced awards, free agency scenarios and more!
In the past the big deciding factor in the value of a free agent was name value. That has diminished a bit. Better players well have bigger name value, but it isn't so much a deciding factor in the signing of free agents. Youth and potential have started to play a bigger role. Teams are no longer as willing to pay for past performance with aging veterans. It has caused a strange thing to happen. Aging veterans have become undervalued.
Just last off-season the Cardinals were able to sign Carlos Beltran to a two year $26 million contract. His batting line of .269/.346/.495 is slightly below his career batting line of .282/.360/.496, but the Cardinals got Carlos Beltran for a discount. Another big aspect that made the Carlos Beltran deal work was that he wasn't expected to be a key cog on the team. Carlos Beltran was signed to be a complimentary player. The fact that he was close to the Carlos Beltran of old was a bonus.
One important thing to keep in mind as the Nationals look for a new pitcher is that they are replacing Edwin Jackson. The Nationals are looking for a fifth starter and now as the market is starting to develop the players the market views as such can be identified. There is a lot of talk about Zack Greinke who everyone knew was going to be highly sought after and then the second tier guys are not the ones that were expected. Kyle Lohse and Anibal Sanchez are emerging as the two options after Greinke.
Before the off-season began it was my estimation that Ryan Dempster would be the most overpaid player on the market, but that isn't coming to fruition. The only team that has been reported with any level of interest are the Twins, but that may be due to the fact that options for Dempster won't be fully realized until Greinke, Lohse, and Sanchez have signed. It is then that the market for Dempster would start to materialize.
Now that the distraction of that election thing is out of the way it is back to the issues that really matter, the issues of the hot stove. One of the big names that could be on the move this off-season is Justin Upton. Upton is coming off a disappointing year following his career year in 2011. In 2012 Upton had a slash line of .280/.355/.430. Most of that is in line with his career numbers of .278/.357/.475 except for his power numbers.
It has to be remembered with Justin Upton that he is only 25 years old and is just about to enter his prime. If those offensive numbers are considered a down year for him then it doesn't take much to imagine what a good year looks like. In 2011 Justin Upton had the best year of his young career hitting .289/.369/.529. The real surprise was the power increase. He should return or surpass those numbers as he enters his prime and continues to develop more strength.
