A Couple Morning Links

January 31, 2013 / David Huzzard

I am going to finish my review of Mike Rizzo's season either later this afternoon or tomorrow. We, Nats fans, are currently being surrounded with the fact the Gio Gonzalez and his father, Max Gonzalez, have been linked to an anti-aging clinic that allegedly sold performance enhancing drugs to baseball players that have tested positive, and while we aren't writing about it ourselves our good buddy Luigi de Guzman did over at his blog. I suggest everyone read what he has to say as he examines the proof we have and lays out the facts as only he can.

If you want to read something more uplifting Grant Brisbee of SBNation wondered if the Nationals are as good as everyone thinks they are and concluded, most likely.

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Mike Rizzo: Asylum

January 30, 2013 / David Huzzard

It was during the 2011 off-season that Mike Rizzo's vision for the Nationals started to take shape. He angered many fans by letting Adam Dunn walk and then not making a strong effort to re-sign him. With Stan Kasten no longer around, this was Mike Rizzo's team and he was going to build it as he saw fit. While Adam Dunn was a great slugger with a high OBP he wasn't a Mike Rizzo type of player. Dunn was a below average defender with no position left on an NL team. He had played an adequate first base in 2010, but Mike Rizzo and the Nationals didn't think that could continue, and neither did any other NL GM as the only team that seriously courted him was the Chicago White Sox.

With Adam Dunn gone to DH in the AL, Mike Rizzo made the first big free agent splash in Washington Nationals history on December 5 when he signed Jayson Werth to a seven year $126 million contract. It was an overpay by about two years and $40 million, but the Nationals had never had a winning season in DC and were coming off of yet another 90 loss season. The Nationals would have had an impossible time attracting a free agent at market value. Fans read the newspapers and blogs that criticized the move as a short sighted overpay that wouldn't help the Nats much in the short run or the long run and turned on Jayson Werth before he even took the field. Read More

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Mike Rizzo: Year Two

January 29, 2013 / David Huzzard

After the 2009 season Mike Rizzo had the unenviable task of trying to convince free agents to play for a team that had suffered over 200 losses in the last two seasons. The Nationals looked like a moribund franchise spinning rudderless in a widening gyre. The biggest challenge for the Nationals was building a pitching staff. With Stephen Strasburg scheduled to debut sometime during the 2010 season and Jordan Zimmermann recovering from Tommy John's surgery the future of the Nats rotation was on the way, but the present was bleak. Mike Rizzo brought in veterans Jason Marquis and Livan Hernandez to hold down to fort while Strasburg developed and Zimmermann healed.

The Nationals had little to no chance to attract bigger names that wanted to play for a winner so they brought in innings eaters like Marquis and Livo to be place holders. Rizzo also brought in a couple position player veterans nearing the end of their careers in Ivan Rodriguez and Adam Kennedy. The biggest decision Rizzo made during the off-season though was to shift Cristian Guzman to second and allow rookie Ian Desmond to be the everyday Major League short stop. It was a risky move to go with a player that wasn't fully defensively developed, but it was the type of move a team in the Nationals position had the luxury of making.

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Citizens of Natstown 2013 Outlook

January 28, 2013 / TJ Landwermeyer

Excited for baseball season to start? So are we, and with just 15 days left until Nats pitchers and catchers report to Viera, the Citizens are gearing up for an extremely busy 2013.

As we've stated on the podcast and on Twitter, we're putting out the Inaugural Edition of the Citizens of Natstown Washington Baseball Annual on FEBRUARY 12. Exclusive content from all of the contributors here at Citizens and a few guest spots from Frank over at Nationals 101, including player profiles, 2013 projections and more! Look for it on both the Kindle E-Book Store and the Apple iBook store (with a separate iPad Optimized version!).

We are also planning a lot more interactivity this season. If you take a look at our calendar, the first thing you'll notice are the Away Game Sunday Watch Parties, hosted at Duffy's Irish Pub. Whether it's just a few fans or a barful, it's always more fun to what games as a group. So come out to Duffy's for any Sunday away game to hang out with some great Nats fans and enjoy these great deals:

$15 Buckets of Miller Lite Bottles
$12 Pitchers of Miller Lite
$4 1/4 lb All Beef Duffy Dogs

In another effort to increase the amount of fan interaction, we're going to be live blogging the Nats game every Monday night. Have something to say about Espi's last AB, or the drunk guy passed out in the last camera pan? Head right here and join the conversation with the staff and fellow Nats Fans!

Like I said, we are extremely excited for this upcoming year and these are just a few of the new features we plan to add to the already great coverage provided by the staff here at Citizens. Look for the podcast this week, the Annual on 2/12, more additions to the calendar above as the season goes on and GO NATS!

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Mike Rizzo: Year One

January 28, 2013 / David Huzzard

On March 1 of 2009 Mike Rizzo took over as the interim GM of the Washington Nationals. His predecessor, Jim Bowden, had been forced to suddenly resign due to a salary skimming scandal involving prospects in the Dominican. Up to that point the 2009 off-season had been fairly slow. The Nationals biggest weakness in 2008 had been starting pitching and defense, but the only moves Jim Bowden had made was the bring in Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen in a trade with the Marlins and sign Adam Dunn. As a GM Jim Bowden was obsessed with one tool players, he loved guys with power or speed, and didn't care much if they could play defense. Dunn and Willingham were better than the typical lot Bowden brought in, but they were never Mike Rizzo players.

As soon as Rizzo took over he made a flurry of signings to fill positions of needs adding Kip Wells, Joe Beimel, and Julian Taverez to help out a bullpen that was bereft of talent. He also brought in Josh Bard to serve as the Nationals back-up catcher, because these types of things are important to a team trying to play the game of baseball for 162 games. All these moves were too little too late. While Jim Bowden was out chasing power hitting outfielders the rest of the roster had fallen into disrepair and there was nothing Rizzo could do to fix it with March free agents. Read More

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The 2012 Nats and Lucky Inning Seven and What it Means for 2013

January 27, 2013 / David Huzzard

In 2012 the Washington Nationals entered the seventh inning with a lead 88 times, ended the inning 86 times with the lead, and won 82 of those ballgames. The 2012 Nats in total had a 93% chance to win a ballgame when they entered the seventh inning with a lead. For comparisons sake the average MLB team had an 88% chance to win when entering the seventh with a lead. The Nats in 2012 were 5% better at winning games when they had the lead in the seventh while they were 0.3% better at winning with a lead in the eighth and 1.6% better at winning with a lead in the ninth. The key to a Nats victory in 2012 was the seventh inning.

Why were the Nats so good at getting through the seventh? The Nats entered the inning with a lead 88 total times and not once did that inning end with the Nationals behind. The first and most important aspect is that the Nationals had the lead. In 2012 the Nationals had the fifth best offense in the NL scoring 731 runs. The Nationals were the fifth best team at scoring runs, but they were also the second best team in the NL at preventing runs, and the best at doing so with their starting pitching. The Nats starters led the NL with an ERA of 3.40.

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NatsFest Audio 2013: The New Guys

January 26, 2013 / TJ Landwermeyer / Source

Bob Carpenter, Mike Rizzo, Dan Haren and Denard Span

Full audio of the Natsfest panel comprised of Mike Rizzo, Dan Haren and Denard Span, moderated by Bob Carpenter. Includes questions from the media and fans.

Streaming available after the jump.

Download NatsFest Audio 2013: The New Guys

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NatsFest Audio 2013: State of the Nationals

January 26, 2013 / TJ Landwermeyer / Source

Charlie Slowes, Mike Rizzo and Mark Lerner

Audio of the "State of the Nationals", fresh from NatsFest.

Streaming available after the jump.

Download NatsFest Audio 2013: The State of the Nationals

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Can The Nats Be Even Better In 2013?

January 26, 2013 / James O'Hara

Courtesy of MLB.com

A common sentiment after the Nationals completed their offseason signing closer Rafael Soriano is that the Nats are even better this season than they were in 2012 when they won an MLB best 98 games. With a trade for a leadoff centerfielder in Denard Span, re-signing slugger Adam LaRoche, signing starter Dan Haren, and the aforementioned Soriano signing, it is a difficult point to deny. Now if the Nats are truly better it isn’t a stretch to think they can win even more game this season. But just how difficult is it to win more games the season after leading Major League Baseball in wins?

In fact since the start of the modern era, 1901, only 16 teams who have amassed the most wins in baseball have exceed their total the following season. Those 16 teams are: the 2010-11 Philadelphia Phillies (97 then 102 wins), the 1997-98 Atlanta Braves (101 then 106 wins), the 1992-93 Braves (98 then 104 wins), the 1989-90 Oakland A’s (99 then 103 wins), the 1960-61 New York Yankees (97 then 109 wins), the 1956-57 Yankees (97 then 98 wins), the 1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers (96 then 105 wins), the 1949-50 Yankees (97 then 98 wins), the 1941-42 Yankees (101 then 103 wins), the 1938-39 Yankees (99 then 106 wins), the 1930-31 Philadelphia A’s (102 then 107 wins), the 1926-27 Yankees (91 then 110 wins), the 1922-23 Yankees (94 then 98 wins), the 1908-09 Chicago Cubs ( 99 then 104 wins), the 1903-04 Boston Americans (91 then 95 wins), and the 1901-02 Pittsburgh Pirates (90 then 103 wins).

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Impact on the Nats of Braves Deal for Justin Upton

January 24, 2013 / David Huzzard

The NL East is now a coin flip. Think of it this way. The Braves line-up is going to score a lot of runs. In 2012 the Braves scored the seventh most runs in baseball. Before getting to Justin Upton and the impact he is going to have let's review the impact of BJ Upton. What was lost in Bourn was a player who produced most of his value in the field, and what they got in BJ Upton was a player who produced most of his value with power. Bourn for his career is a .272/.339/.365 hitter while BJ Upton is a career .255/.336/.422 hitter. BJ Upton is marginally worse at getting on base but hits with much more power. It doesn't completely replace the value that Bourn was to the 2012 Braves but it helps.

What is really going to help the Braves is the deal they completed this morning to bring in Justin Upton. Justin Upton is a career .278/.357/.475 hitter who plays amazing defense in right. His defensive value should only improve shifting across the diamond to left field and leaving Jason Heyward in right. Back to the line-up for a minute. While Upton's career numbers aren't that close to Chipper Jones career numbers of .303/.401/.529 he doesn't have to be. Chipper Jones in 2012 was a .287/.377/.455 hitter and only played in 112 games. Justin Upton can replace that level of production and is going to play in more games.

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The Phillies Get Young

January 23, 2013 / David Huzzard

Photo via Thomas Leuthard

During the 2012 season the Phillies position players were the oldest in the National League with an average age of 31.1. One of the main off-season goals for the Phillies was to get younger and it looked like they were going to do so after trading for 24 year old Ben Revere. Then perhaps Ruben Amaro Jr. got a little confused and mistook the need to get young for the need to get Young, and the Phillies traded for 36 year old Michael Young.

Michael Young isn't a bad player having hit .301/.347/.444 for his career, but he is on the downward slope of his career and the Phillies are asking him to play a position in third base that he last played full time in 2010, and when he did had a -5.4 UZR. In a small sample size of 25 games at the position in 2012 Michael Young managed to nearly equal that UZR with -4.8 and had a UZR/150 of -30.3. If Michael Young can somewhat get back to numbers close to his career average then he will help a Phillies team that got a .672 OPS from third base in 2012. There is doubt as to if Young can be that type of offensive player anymore and even more doubt as to if he can even play the position the Phillies will be asking him to play.

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Mr. 25 and the Nature of Predictions

January 22, 2013 / David Huzzard

There is really nothing to write so why am I trying. That is the question that entered my mind the moment I sat down to write this. I had an idea to write about who would be the 25th man on the Nats roster, wondering if people are right or wrong to back off their predictions for the Nats, or if we were wrong in predicting a mid-80s win total for the 2012 Nats. None of these are really enough for a full 500-1000 word blog post so I will address them all.

First of all I will say it is too early to be talking about Spring Training battles. Pitchers and catchers report in just about three weeks and while it isn't likely that something could happen before then, something could happen, and it doesn't even have to be baseball related. Henry Rodriguez's work visa could get lost in the mail handing the 25th spot on the roster to Bill Bray. Until everyone is in camp writing about who is going to be the last man on the roster is pointless in some ways. The Nats could also go out and sign Jose Velverde or K-Rod to minor league deals with an invite to Spring Training. While that may not instantly give them the heads up on Bray or H-Rod, both Velverde and K-Rod are better pitchers when they are healthy. And if you are worried about both Velverde and K-Rod being right handed while Bray is a lefty I would like to point you to this post by Tom Tango from April 30 of last year.

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The Impact of Denard Span on the Nats Line-Up

January 21, 2013 / David Huzzard

One of the big differences between the 2012 Nationals and the 2013 Nationals is going to be the presence of Denard Span in the Nats line-up instead of Michael Morse. Morse didn't have a big impact on the season numbers as he missed two months of the season, but when he did return the run production of the Nationals increased dramatically. Morse ended the season with 18 homers. The Nationals as a team hit 194, the second most in the NL. Denard Span has never hit more than 8 homers in a season, and his 162 game average is 6. There is no question that replacing Morse with Span is a loss of power, but that loses sight of what Span does bring.

When people think of anything their mind often jumps to what is ideal or what is the best. The two best leadoff hitters of all time were Ricky Henderson and Tim Raines. Both of those guys stole a lot of bases. Denard Span doesn't steal that many bases. His career high in stolen bases is 26. The best base stealer in 2012 was Mike Trout with 49. Denard Span isn't likely to steal 40+ bases in 2013 simply because he never has before. What Span does do is he gets on base. In 2012 leadoff hitters for the Nationals averaged a .325 OBP. The average for the National League was .319. Denard Span for his career is a .357 OBP hitter.

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Earl Weaver, Davey Johnson, and the Washington Nationals

January 19, 2013 / David Huzzard

Eight of Davey Johnson's thirteen seasons as a player were spent in Baltimore and four and a half of those were spent under manager Earl Weaver. The world of baseball received sad news this morning that Earl Weaver had passed away, but his legacy lives on. Earl Weaver was not a big believer in the strategy of stealing bases or sacrifice bunting, or more importantly he wasn't in favor of giving away outs. In more than a few ways Earl Weaver was the first sabermetrician.

When most people think of sabermetrics they think of numbers and stats, but it is the concepts that are far more important than the math that proves them. Earl Weaver understood the value of an out in a time when not many other managers did. The game of baseball owes a lot to Earl Weaver, and with Davey Johnson as their manager there might not be a team built in more of an Earl Weaver manner than the Washington Nationals.

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The Return of AJ Cole

January 18, 2013 / Sean Hogan

When the Morse trade went through on Wednesday evening, the first reports out seemed to suggest that A.J. Cole was the full return for the Nationals. As a big Cole fan in the past, I was pretty happy about the deal; Morse was no longer really needed in DC and was going to leave after the 2013 season anyways with no compensation coming back, and Cole was still a very good prospect in my eyes. Once I found out that Blake Treinen and a player to be named later were involved as well, the deal went from good to great in my eyes. I wrote about the Treinen addition on Thursday and the PTBNL will likely be a 2012 A’s pick not from the first 5 or so rounds. While Cole is a familiar face, it is still worth looking back on what went wrong and then what went right with him in the small amount of time he spent with Oakland.

Cole’s short-lived career with the Oakland Athletics started out pretty rocky, but end up relatively smooth. He battled issues with his mechanics and got battered around pretty badly in A+ ball (0-7 with a 7.82 ERA in 38 innings and 8 starts). Some of his rate stats remained pretty solid (7.34 K/9 and 2.37 BB/9), but others were pretty bad (1.66 HR/9, .405 BABIP and 52.2 LOB%). The latter three suggest that Cole was a victim of bad luck on top of his already poor performance.

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