The Washington Nationals Other Off-Season Need

All of the focus of the Nationals off-season and what is left to do has been on Adam LaRoche, and while signing him or not signing him will have the biggest impact on the team moving forward the Nationals do have another need. In 2012 the Washington Nationals bullpen ranked fourteenth in baseball with 3.3 fWAR. There is some question as to how effective a stat like WAR is in measuring relievers as it heavily weights innings pitched. By all measures the Nationals had better relievers than the Rockies, but because the Rockies relievers pitched so many more innings than the rest of baseball they finished second in fWAR.

By the rate state of ERA the Nationals had the seventh best bullpen in the majors and by FIP the twelfth. Moving forward into 2013 there are questions about the Nationals bullpen. Gone from last year's squad are Sean Burnett, Tom Gorzelanny, and Mike Gonzalez. While Gorzelanny or Gonzalez could be brought back to join Zach Duke as the lefties in the pen, that is unlikely. The Nationals have been tied heavily to JP Howell but until a deal happens nothing can be assumed. As it stands right now the Nationals bullpen lines up with Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Duke, Mattheus, Bray, and Henry Rodriguez.

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JP Howell and the Unspoken Option

What if the Nats search for a lefty reliever turned internal. For a couple days now all the writers that cover the Nats have been able to talk about is JP Howell and he, along with former Nats Tom Gorzelanny and Mike Gonzalez, is one of the last lefty relievers left on the board. After losing Sean Burnett to the Angels the Nats are left with fewer and fewer options for a lefty reliever. Except of course the one option no one is talking about. JP Howell is a fine lefty reliever. For his career as a reliever lefties have hit .241/.323/.351 off of him, but what if I told you that the Nats have in house a pitcher who lefties hit .214/.307/.300 off of.

That pitcher is Ross Detwiler and while it sounds foolish to take a starting pitcher and turn him into a LOOGY consider that righties hit .272/.331/.418 off of Detwiler for his career. Detwiler has been a reliever and a very good one before and just last season he bounced between relieving and starting. If the Nats rotation suffers an injury as it stands then either Zach Duke, Yunesky Maya, or Christian Garcia would be forced into the rotation. Converting Detwiler to primarily a reliever solves both the lefty bullpen issue and the worry about injury to the starting rotation. 

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Southpaw Signings

The baseball offseason is a trying time for fans, and one that is highlighted by the comings and goings of players. While some trades make headlines, more than likely, most of the ink we will read during the winter months involves free agents, and their possible destinations. It all ultimately devolves into a glorified game of Eff-Marry-Kill when it comes to the discourse surrounding possible free agent signings, and the Nationals are no different than the other 29 franchises in this respect, as they have more than their share of possible moves to make in preparation for the 2013 season.

While the vast majority of possible moves that the Nats might make this winter will be determined upon the final destination of Gold Glove/Silver Slugger winner Adam LaRoche, one stands alone as unique, due to it being unencumbered by the complexity of a possible ALR re-signing.

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2012 Nationals Grades: Bullpen

Probably one of the most undervalued aspect of a team is their bullpen. From year to year, a bullpen can look completely different with a select handful of players staying with the team for an extended period of time. The 2012 Nationals had a very good bullpen that, surprisingly was very similar to the roster on the previous year, 2011. The Nationals had some issues with injuries, forcing some adapting along the way. The Nationals were lucky in the sense that there were a few surprises for the team along the way. Additionally, the Nationals bullpen was statistically solid all the way around.
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The Faltering Bullpen Uplifted

It is always tough to tell how a reliever is doing. Their entire season is a small sample size. The best relievers pitch less than half as many innings as a starting pitcher. So, breaking it down further to one month could be even more foolhardy. One bad outing can ruin a reliever's ERA. Look at Tom Gorzelanny. He had one rough outing in the beginning of the season against the Astros where he gave up six runs, but that one outing is enough to make his 3.64 ERA enough to not fully explain how good and how important Gorzelanny has been to the Nationals bullpen.

Small sample size or not the Nationals bullpen was not good in July. They have the seventh worst bullpen ERA over that time at 4.73. Clippard, H-Rod, and Mattheus all have ERA's over 5.00 while Storen and Stammen both have ERA's in the 4.00. The most innings pitched in July were the 15 1/3 of Stammen, but if the Nats bullpen continues to falter like this things might get even tighter as the Braves are starting to roll.

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Fitting the Pieces: The 2012 Bullpen

In 2011 the 520 2/3 innings that the Washington Nationals bullpen pitched was the fourth most in the majors. The Nationals bullpen also combined to blow the most saves in baseball at 28, but that was more a product of having to pitch those 520 2/3 innings combined with an offense that very rarely offered much of a cushion. The 2011 Nationals' bullpen was very good striking out 8.02 per nine while walking 3.65 per nine with an ERA of 3.20 and FIP of 3.66. 

Things have turned around a bit for the Nationals bullpen. A lot of people focus on the struggles of Henry Rodriguez and the times that Ryan Perry and Tom Gorzelanny gave up multiple runs in an inning to turn a close game into a blowout, but as a whole the bullpen has been better in 2012 than in 2011. The 2012 version of the pen has struck out 8.50 per nine innings while walking 3.71 with an ERA of 3.12 and a FIP of 3.42. The most important stat however is that the Nationals bullpen has had to pitch only 167 1/3 innings or the 15th most in baseball. 

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Footloose: The Resurgence of Sean Burnett's Career

If there’s one word that succinctly describes Sean Burnett’s career, it’s enigmatic. It’s been a long and windy road from his days as a first round draft pick pegged as one of the future mainstays of the Pirates starting rotation to his current residence in the Nationals bullpen. From his piercing blue eyes hiding under the rakish tilt of his cap, to his oft maligned relief appearances, it’s easy to say Burnett has broken a few hearts during his DC tenure. In 2012, Burnett has seen a renaissance of sorts; a return to bursts of dominance that he has flashed in previous seasons, with an added component missing from those seasons -- consistency.
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