Nationals Fringy Prospect Update

May 17, 2013/ Sean Hogan

Two weeks ago, I took a look at my pre-season top 15 prospects and how they performed through April. Now it's time to take a look at the second half of my top prospect list, mostly filled with fringe prospects and long-shots.

16) C Jhonatan Solano - With Wilson Ramos going on the DL again, Solano will get a second crack at the ML roster in 2013. He went 1/6 in three games for the Nats in April and isn't hitting much better in Syracuse - .167/.200/.208 (albeit only in 50 plate appearances). He was just reinstated from the Syracuse 7 day DL (ankle injury) yesterday, just in time to be called up. TRENDING: DOWN

A Look at Sean's Pre-Season Top 15 Through April

May 03, 2013/ Sean Hogan

When I put together my top 15 prospect list for the Washington Baseball Annual, I knew it was a bit risky. Only five of the top ten were not injury risks before the season, and out of those five, two have already been injured this year. Through the first month of the season, the top part of the Nats' farm system has been similarly mediocre to the Nats in general.

1) 3B Anthony Rendon – I didn’t think we’d see Rendon in the big leagues this soon, but he was the first call when Ryan Zimmerman went down with a hamstring injury. Rendon put up a nice .292/.462/.500 triple slash in 65 Harrisburg plate appearances. In his limited time in DC, he struggled both at the plate (.182/.308/.227 in 26 PA) and in the field (3 errors in 22 total chances). Still, the future is bright and Rendon could certainly play his way onto the roster late in the year. TRENDING: STEADY

Kevin Keyes and Other Long Home Runs

April 26, 2013/ Sean Hogan

It's hard to look at Kevin Keyes and not be impressed at his size. The 6'3" 225 lb 1B/OF is much bigger and stronger than you and I; he proved this on Wednesday night, hitting an estimated 440-450 foot home run that broke some lights at Five County Stadium, the home of the Carolina Mudcats. Here is the link to the massive shot - the uploader does not allow it to be embedded at this time.

Nats 2006 Draft: Nothing to See Here

April 19, 2013/ Sean Hogan

The high point of the 2006 Nationals draft was that they drafted a guy named Burt Reynolds. Players drafted by the Nationals in 2006 have combined to net a -0.4 WAR in the big leagues. No, that is not a typo.

With 5 selections in the top 91 picks, the Nationals could have rebooted their franchise much sooner with good picks. Amazingly, the Nationals have gotten less ML value from the 2006 draft than if they had selected no players at all (okay, that’s not entirely true, as Brad Peacock was a major piece in the Gio Gonzalez trade, which I guess counts for something).

Kobernus Starts 2013 Season on Fire

April 12, 2013/ Sean Hogan

Jeff Kobernus was far from a lock to make the Detroit Tigers’ active roster out of camp this spring as a Rule 5 draftee, and he didn’t really help his own cause. In 50 spring at-bats, Kobernus tallied nine singles and two triples, putting up a .220/.291/.300 triple slash while being caught in both of his stolen base attempts.

After being forced to miss the second half of the 2012 season due to a rib injury, Kobernus was an unknown quantity, enough for the Nationals to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft by not placing him on the 40-man roster and also enough for the Tigers to return him before the season started. Kobernus was returned to the Nats on March 23 and started out the season in AAA for the Syracuse Chiefs. One could expect the combination of a poor Spring and the disappointment of not making the big league squad could have led to a mediocre start to the year. In this case, it is exactly the opposite.

Four Sleeper Prospects to Watch in 2013

March 29, 2013/ Sean Hogan

Prospect-related topics are hard to come by in spring training, so I thought I’d take a look at some sleeper prospects that I’ll be keeping an eye on in 2013. Rather than sticking to guys that have been on most top prospect lists, I decided to take a look at some guys that have breakthrough years. In Austin Dicharry and Rick Hague’s cases, they have MLB talent but have battled injuries for the past few years. Jason Martinson has excellent tools up the middle but lacks plate discipline. Robert Benincasa has been blowing batters away with stuff that doesn’t blow scouts away. While these four players specifically might not break out in 2013, these types of profiles are the ones that often do (see Christian Garcia and Nathan Karns for guys that battled injuries and Craig Stammen for a reliever succeeding despite not having tremendous stuff).

Nats acquire LHP Ian Krol to complete Morse deal

March 22, 2013/ Sean Hogan

The Nationals already came out ahead in the Michael Morse trade, acquiring two righties with upside in AJ Cole and Blake Treinen. On Wednesday, they added to the previous bounty when the player to be named later was named: LHP Ian Krol. The lefty, who was once lauded by prospect gurus Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law in 2010, has fought through some self-inflicted drama as well as some minor injuries since then; the Nationals are picking him up in hopes that he'll continue to be “a joy to watch” as Goldstein mentioned and will build upon his solid 2012 season.

Krol is a pitcher, not a thrower. His mechanics are excellent, throwing from a ¾ arm slot, and he has no issues locating his three pitches. Like former Nats prospects Tommy Milone and Danny Rosenbaum, Krol lacks velocity, topping out at 90-91 MPH. In order to keep climbing up the ladder, he must continue to exhibit excellent command on the hill and induce ground balls. Krol is mentioned all the time as being a fierce competitor with a feel for pitching that is much more mature than most others. He's not afraid to attack batters inside, and uses his above average changeup and excellent curveball (called “demoralizing” by the clever Ryan Sullivan of NatsGM) to make up for his fastball velocity deficiency.

Spring Training Goggles: Zach Walters

March 12, 2013/ Sean Hogan

Every season there is a player that sticks out in Spring Training to me. It doesn't matter what the player has done over his entire career; there is always one guy whose success in 40 Spring Training at bats causes me to ignore his entire past. This season that player is Zach Walters, the 23 year old switch-hitting shortstop that the Nationals received in the 2011 trade that sent Jason Marquis to Arizona.

Through Monday, March 11, Walters put up a .333/.385/.583 triple slash in 26 plate appearances, including 2 home runs. Given the fact that his Baseball Reference OppQual of 7.6 stands a little closer to AAA than AA quality of competition (and nowhere near the MLB level) and the fact that it's 26 plate appearances, there is really nothing there to draw conclusions from. Yet still, I am more optimistic about Walters in March of 2013 than I was in October of 2012 despite no real games having been played in between.

The Curious Case of Carlos Rivero

February 22, 2013/ Sean Hogan

The Nats claimed IF Carlos Rivero off of waivers from the Phillies in December of 2011. At the time, the move came with little fanfare; Rivero was coming off of a .270/.326/.440 triple slash in his third full season of AA ball. Carlos Rivero has always been a toolsy guy; the Phillies used a waiver claim and a 40-man spot on him the year before the Nats did after he put up a .603 OPS in AA ball. The issues with Rivero revolved around his mediocre results, because the talent has always been there both offensively and defensively.

Rivero turned a corner in Syracuse in 2012, where he hit .303/.347/.435 with 10 HR and 64 RBI in 126 games, as well as in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he hit .283/.365/.498 with 10 HR and 35 RBI in 55 games for the Leones del Caracas. His defense improved as well, as he improved from a .913 fielding percentage at 3B in 2011 to a .953 in 2012. While .953 is still not great by any stretch, the potential is there for him to keep improving, to the point where Baseball America named him the best defensive 3B in the AAA International League in 2012. Rivero's bat won't play nearly as well at the ML level as it did in AAA, but can still be passable enough for a utility role.

The Return of AJ Cole

January 18, 2013/ Sean Hogan

When the Morse trade went through on Wednesday evening, the first reports out seemed to suggest that A.J. Cole was the full return for the Nationals. As a big Cole fan in the past, I was pretty happy about the deal; Morse was no longer really needed in DC and was going to leave after the 2013 season anyways with no compensation coming back, and Cole was still a very good prospect in my eyes. Once I found out that Blake Treinen and a player to be named later were involved as well, the deal went from good to great in my eyes. I wrote about the Treinen addition on Thursday and the PTBNL will likely be a 2012 A’s pick not from the first 5 or so rounds. While Cole is a familiar face, it is still worth looking back on what went wrong and then what went right with him in the small amount of time he spent with Oakland.

Cole’s short-lived career with the Oakland Athletics started out pretty rocky, but end up relatively smooth. He battled issues with his mechanics and got battered around pretty badly in A+ ball (0-7 with a 7.82 ERA in 38 innings and 8 starts). Some of his rate stats remained pretty solid (7.34 K/9 and 2.37 BB/9), but others were pretty bad (1.66 HR/9, .405 BABIP and 52.2 LOB%). The latter three suggest that Cole was a victim of bad luck on top of his already poor performance.

A Quick Look at Blake Treinen

January 17, 2013/ Sean Hogan

As I'm sure you already know, the Nationals traded fan favorite OF Michael Morse for an old friend (RHP prospect AJ Cole), a new friend (RHP Blake Treinen) and a Player To Be Named Later. Much has already been said about Cole's return to the organization, but Treinen is a relatively unknown prospect with some intriguing upside.

Treinen's 2012 season was better than his numbers indicated. While he was 7-7 with a 4.37 ERA, he put up a 3.59 FIP and struck out four times as many batters as he walked. His control is impressive given the fact that he did not pitch competitively in his first three years of college, but nonetheless it is one of his strong suits at this point of his career. The Nationals could look to challenge the 24 year old in 2013 with an eventual trip to Harrisburg, but a start in Potomac is likely.

Nats spend $225,000 on Dominican teenager

December 13, 2012/ Sean Hogan

I'm admittedly not the most knowledgeable person when it comes to international free agency. If the Nats had given a sliver of effort in chasing IFAs since Smileygate went down, I may have shown some effort following IFAs myself. My interest level did bump up a little bit just now, though, as the Nationals have signed 16 year old Dominican 3B Neivy Pilier/Nievi Pelier (I'm sticking with Neivy Pilier for now) for $225,000 (the most they've given to an IFA since Smileygate).

Pilier is certainly an interesting prospect. DPLBaseball.com described him in October as a "solid bat with occasional power, defensive skills and arm strength" and today as a "hard nose (sic) player with game instincts...(with) raw power and shows signs that average game power will come with development." DPL Baseball goes on to note that Pilier is only average with the glove, but has a very good arm, so he should be able to play the corners in both the infield and outfield as he develops. Matt Garrioch of Minor League Ball put Pilier close to the end of his 2012 MLB International Preview (61st out of 66 names), but it's always better to be low on the list than not there at all.

The Minor League/Draft Ramifications of the Span trade

November 30, 2012/ Sean Hogan

I like the Denard Span trade for many reasons. The Nationals have been looking for a center fielder since their inception and got one at the relatively low price of a minor league pitcher in Alex Meyer who has a ton of ML starting potential as well as bust/bullpen potential. I won't go further into the trade from a ML level since my colleague David Huzzard already went over that, but there are even more ripple effects caused by the trade when you look at it from a minor league and draft perspective.

The Case for Signing Victorino over Bourn

November 21, 2012/ Sean Hogan

Yes, I know I'm the head of minor league coverage at Citizens of Natstown and no, this is not a minor league subject. It is a subject that I've struggled with during the offseason so far, though, so I figured to write what was on my mind (and because it takes forever to write 549 player profiles for this year's minor league free agents as I plan on doing).

Michael Bourn is a very good baseball player, and is both better and younger than Shane Victorino. I will not argue with that at all. I do think that the situation isn't quite that simplistic, however, and busted out my Ted Mosby yellow legal pad to make a pros and cons list to make my decision.

40-Man Roster Candidates

November 02, 2012/ Sean Hogan

Last year, the Nats added four players to the 40 man roster to protect them from being taken: Derek Norris, Tyler Moore, Eury Perez and Jhonatan Solano. Even so, Erik Komatsu and Brad Meyers were both taken by opposing teams (although now both have been returned to the organization). This year, the Nationals have until November 20 to finalize their 40 man roster in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft that will take place on December 6. When Mike Rizzo brought up Christian Garcia in September, one of the important players to protect from the Rule 5 draft was covered. Here's a look at some other intriguing options.

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