The Nationals are currently sitting at 34-34, something that seemed
unfathomable at the beginning of what seemed to be a promising season. Much has
been written about what some perceives the Nationals problems to be: errors,
Danny Espinosa, Zach Duke and offensive ineptitude to name a few. Something
that has been mentioned, but not truly quantified or comprehended, is how much
the time missed by Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper due to injuries has affected
their fortunes this season.
The Nationals' longest losing streak
this season is four games. They have accomplished this twice. The first time
after Zimmerman went on the DL, the second time after Harper injured himself in
Los Angeles. The Nationals longest winning streak is five games. This occurred
the day after Zimmerman returned from the DL, one of the few times both were in
the lineup together this year. Just from a general perspective we can already
see what these two mean to the team.
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The Nationals wasted a great start by Gio Gonzalez by getting nothing
going offensively and the Cleveland Indians walked off with a 2-1 win
in the first game of a three game set.
The winning run came in
the bottom of the ninth inning. Fernando Abad got Mike Aviles to line
out for the first out of the inning but then ran into trouble. Drew
Stubbs singled to right and then advanced to third on a perfectly
executed hit and run with Micheal Bourn.
With
the winning run just 90 feet away and only one out the Nats gave up the
double play opportunity when Bourn swiped second. They elected to pitch
to left-handed hitter Jason Kipnis anyways to get the lefty-lefty
match-up with Abad. Kipnis hit weakly to first, but that was enough for
the speedy Stubbs who slid in under Kurt Suzuki's tag to end the game.
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When the Nationals signed Rafael Soriano this offseason it supposedly set up
a nigh unbeatable triumvirate in the bullpen of Soriano, Drew Storen and Tyler
Clippard. All were elite relievers who had experience closing out games,
combined they would shut down opponents in the later innings.
But that hasn't been the case this
season. All three have had their struggles, but none as much as Storen. Just a
year away from a 43 save season Storen currently has a 4.85 ERA, 4.14 FIP and
1.54 WHIP. While not in the closer role this season Storen already has
three blown saves, just two less than in 2011 when he was the full-time closer.
Storen isn't that bad, his talent was not suddenly stolen away from him by the
aliens of Moron Mountain, so why is he having so much trouble this year?
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Of Nationals regulars, excluding
the mess at second base, could you name the one with the highest
strikeout rate? The title may have given it away, but it's Adam LaRoche
at 26.6%. This is up from his 21.3% rate in 2012 and a good bit ahead of second place Ian Desmond
at 23%. What LaRoche does have going for him is that he is in
second place among the same group in walk rate at 11.7%, behind only Bryce Harper
and his 14% walk rate. As well as, second in home runs with 10, again behind Harper who has 12. So why is this important?
Well,
for some who enjoy advanced statistics there's a well-known concept
called the Three True Outcomes. As you may have guessed the Three True
Outcomes are a strikeout, a walk and a home run. This is because these
are the only outcomes of an at-bat that are completely within the
control of just the pitcher and batter, anything else involves the
defense in some way. Baseball Prospectus, who coined the term in an
article in
2000 , described the Three True Outcomes as distilling the game of baseball down to its essence.
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Sometimes when looking at the
complex mathematical formulas that go into the new advanced stats it is hard to
remember that at their root is the game of baseball. One time I was debating
the merits of Steve Lombardozzi and Danny Espinosa and was accused of only
liking Espinosa more because he had a higher WAR. When I laid out that in fact
I liked him because of his superior power, base running and defense I got the
odd response that those were all components of WAR. What the person I was
discussing this with seemed to forget was that these are also components of
baseball.
Numbers are not there to replace
baseball, merely to either confirm what you have observed or to make you re-think
it. What is really cool is when you observe something and the numbers come back
in complete agreement. I just experienced this the other day in regards to
Tyler Moore.
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The Nationals returned home from
their West Coast swing and saw their offense come alive against their
division rival, the Philadelphia Phillies, winning 5-2.
Jordan
Zimmermann took the mound for the Nats and did what he's done all
season, mowing through opposing line-ups deep into the game. While the
offense took care of the rest.
The
Phillies struck first against Zimmermann when Domonic Brown singled to
score Ryan Howard in the top of the second inning. But then it was all
Nationals.
The Nats first
run came in the third inning. Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam
LaRoche all walked against Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick, loading the
bases for Ian Desmond. Desmond hit a sac fly to right field, scoring
Harper and advancing Zimmerman to third where he was stranded.
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Oftentimes a team's bench goes
overlooked when determining how good a team is and rightfully so as the average
bench player gets about half as many plate appearances as a starter. But bench
players, especially in the National League, are an important part of a team's
overall success. No team goes without injuries through an entire season and
every team, especially in the NL, needs pinch hitters. A good bench can provide
extra value in these situations, often creating the difference between two
evenly matched teams.
The Nationals bench in 2012 was one
of the best benches in the Major Leagues. The four main bench players: Chad
Tracy, Roger Bernadina, Tyler Moore and Steve Lombardozzi earned the nickname
the Goon Squad for the value they provided as back-ups. Altogether the four
combined for 3.4 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs. Nationals'
pinch hitters were the best in batting average and second in OPS in Major
League baseball in 2012. They were a solid unit.
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The Nationals wasted a great
start by Stephen Strasburg and lost 4-2 in ten innings to the San
Francisco Giants on a Pablo Sandoval walk-off home run.
The
Nationals got off to a good start, scoring two runs in the first
inning. A Denard Span single, Bryce Harper sac fly and doubles from Ryan
Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, the latter breaking an 0-20 streak, did the
damage.
Those were the only
runs the Nationals scored all night though. They threatened in the
fourth inning when they loaded the bases with one out but a ground out
by Kurt Suzuki and strikeout by Stephen Strasburg let Giants starter
Matt Cain off the hook.
Strasburg
had a rough going in the first inning, walking two and giving up two
singles. But a slick double play turned by Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa and
Adam LaRoche helped him get out of trouble and he finished a scoreless
first, albeit in 31 pitches.
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The Nationals continued the slump they started in San Diego, getting
blown out by the San Francisco Giants, 8-0, in game one of a three game
set in San Francisco.
The
Nationals bats were especially cold tonight, amassing only three hits
all game. That combined with the pitching styles of spot starter Zach
Duke and fellow long men Craig Stammen and Henry Rodriguez and the Nats
did not have much of a chance all night.
Giants
starter Ryan Vogelsong entered the game with an 8.06 ERA and 1.839
WHIP, struggling mightily to find the form that made him one of the best
comeback stories in Major League Baseball in 2011 and 2012.
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A good eight innings for the Nationals against the San Diego Padres became a tie game in the ninth, but the Nats pulled through, winning 6-5 in 10.
Two players who have been scuffling lately, Chad Tracy and Drew Storen, got to play hero in the extra frame, making sure the Nationals held on to a game they had all but sewn up just an inning before.
Tracy hit the game winning home run in the top of the tenth, his first home run of the year and the first RBI from a pinch hitter this season. While Storen came in to the tenth to notch the save.
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The Nationals traveled to San Diego to begin a four game set with the Padres and had perhaps their best road victory to date, winning 6-2.
Stephen Strasburg, pitching in his hometown for the first time in his career, also pitched into the eighth inning for the first time in his career. He gave up just two runs, one earned, in eight innings, striking out four and walking three in 117 pitches.
The offense, freed from having to face Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke back-to-back, broke out against the struggling Edison Volquez.
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Before we begin let me apologize for not being able to write last week, as
some of you may know I am still a student and with that comes exams, so my
attention was elsewhere. Alright let's get on with the show.
Jordan Zimmermann has elevated his game
this year. This is probably the truest true fact about the 2013 Washington
Nationals. He currently possesses a 1.69 ERA and .87 WHIP, while going 7-1 in
eight starts. He is going deeper into games too, pitching seven or more innings
six times already, two-thirds of his 2012 season total of nine. This is known.
What we want to know though, is why has he been so good?
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In the rubber match against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Nationals
saw their starting pitcher and catcher exit early and their bats never
arrive, losing 3-1.
Ross
Detwiler seemed off all night and left after only three innings with an
apparent injury. His battery mate, Wilson Ramos, also exited in the
fourth with an injury, after hitting a single. After the game it was
announced that Detwiler left with back spasms, but they are not severe.
Ramos left the game with a pulled hamstring, for a second time this
season. and is expected to miss time.
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The Washington Nationals ran into perhaps the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, and fell 2-0.
The
Nationals appeared to have conceded the difficulty of facing Kershaw
before the game even started. Davey Johnson, likely recognizing the
dominance of Kershaw, gave Denard Span the night off along with his
fellow outfielder Bryce Harper, who was sitting after his collision last
night. Leaving a lineup filled with mostly backups.
Kershaw
did not need the help though as he baffled Nationals hitters for 8.2
innings, coming one batter short of the complete game shutout.
Only
Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Adam LaRoche managed to get on-base for
the Nats tonight. All three did so in the first inning, the only time
Kershaw really struggled, throwing 29 pitches in the first.
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The Washington Nationals
traveled to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers and took the first game of a
three game set, 6-2. But that isn't the big news from tonight's game.
In
the bottom of the fifth inning, Dodgers catcher AJ Ellis smashed a
liner to deep right-center and Bryce Harper sprinted back in an oddly
circular path to try to get to the ball. Harper ran full speed through
the warning track and into the wall, slamming face first into the out of
town scoreboard. Harper immediately crumpled to the ground and stayed
there. Harper appeared dazed after getting up but was able to walk off
the field under his own power with Nationals trainer Lee Kuntz. He was
replaced by Roger Bernadina.
After
the game it was announced that Harper needed 11 stitches, but that he
did not have a concussion. He will also have an X-ray on a jammed
shoulder, but there were no immediate issues with it.
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